Housing Affordability Tracker
Estimate a mortgage at today's rates, see whether homes look affordable or stretched compared to history, and read neutral buyer and seller conditions. No advice, just the data.
Run your numbers
Mortgage and affordability calculator
Prefilled with national figures. Change anything and recalculate. Income, price, and the rest never leave your browser.
History
Is this expensive by historical standards?
A median-home mortgage as a share of median income, back to 1990. This is the context a plain mortgage calculator cannot give.
Today a median-home mortgage takes about 29.2% of median income, which is in the less affordable part of its 19.5% to 36.8% range since 1990 (median 26.4%).
Historical comparison uses principal and interest only, because taxes, insurance, and HOA costs vary widely and are not consistently available across history. Assumes 20% down and a 30-year term. Not financial advice.
National snapshot
The housing market right now
Current national figures from public sources. New-home and existing-home data are labeled separately, never blended.
Prices and incomes
Median new-home price
$403,200
-4.7% over the past year
Median household income
$83,730
Annual, lags about a year
Rent inflation
+2.8%
Year over year
Mortgage spread
2.01 pp
Lender premium over Treasuries
Cost of borrowing
30-year mortgage
6.48%
15-year mortgage
5.79%
10-year Treasury
4.47%
Fed funds target
3.50% to 3.75%
Supply and sales
Active listings
1,058,693
Months of supply
9.4 mo
New-home sales
622,000/yr
Annualized rate
Existing-home sales
4,020,000/yr
Annualized rate
New-home figures (price, supply, new sales) come from the Census Bureau. Existing-home sales come from the National Association of Realtors. Active listings come from Realtor.com. These are different sources measuring different parts of the market, shown separately rather than blended.
Conditions
What the data says about buyers and sellers
A neutral read of current conditions from affordability, rates, inventory, and prices. These are descriptions, not advice or predictions.
Buyer conditions
Moderate confidenceConditions look mixed for buyers. Affordability is stretched versus its long-run range, but there is ample inventory.
A median-home mortgage is about 29.2% of median income (principal and interest), versus a 1990-to-now range.
The 30-year fixed average is about 6.48%.
About 9.4 months of supply (new homes).
Median new-home price is down about 4.7% year over year.
Payment-to-income has moved -3.6 points over the past year.
Seller conditions
Moderate confidenceSeller conditions look to be weakening. Inventory is ample and prices have eased over the past year, which can reduce pricing power. Stretched affordability may also limit buyer demand.
A median-home mortgage is about 29.2% of median income (principal and interest), versus a 1990-to-now range.
About 9.4 months of supply (new homes).
Median new-home price is down about 4.7% year over year.
Not included: sales trend, inventory trend. We leave these out rather than guess.
Coarse national read. Income data lags about a year and supply reflects new homes, so this is never a high-confidence signal.
This describes current national conditions using public data. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or a prediction.
The Fed, in plain English
How the Fed connects to your mortgage
What the Federal Reserve does, why mortgage rates do not follow it exactly, and what is on the calendar.
Current fed funds target
3.50% to 3.75%
The range the Fed currently targets for the overnight rate.
Next FOMC meeting
June 16 to 17, 2026
Decision around 2:00 PM ET on the second day. This meeting includes updated economic projections.
What the Federal Reserve is
The Fed is the central bank of the United States. Its job is to keep prices stable and employment healthy, mainly by steering interest rates.
What the Fed chair does
The chair leads the committee that sets the target interest rate. Decisions are made by a vote of the committee, not by one person alone.
The federal funds rate
This is the rate banks charge each other to borrow overnight. The Fed sets a target range for it, which ripples out to other borrowing costs over time.
Why mortgage rates do not follow the Fed exactly
A 30-year mortgage is priced off longer-term bond markets, especially the 10-year Treasury yield, plus a spread lenders add for risk and costs. The Fed moves the short end directly and the long end only indirectly, so mortgage rates can move before or differently from the Fed.
Why the 10-year Treasury matters
The 10-year Treasury yield is the anchor for long-term borrowing, including mortgages. When it rises or falls, mortgage rates tend to follow.
How rate cuts or hikes can affect housing
Lower rates can make borrowing cheaper over time, which can support buyer demand. Higher rates can raise monthly payments and cool demand. Mortgage rates often move ahead of a meeting as markets adjust, so the effect is rarely immediate.
Markets price the odds of a future rate change, but those odds shift constantly and we do not display them here. This section explains how the pieces fit together. It is not a prediction or financial advice. See the official FOMC calendar.
Who is buying
Today's homebuyers
40
Median age, first-time buyer
59
Median age, all buyers
21%
First-time buyer share
In the 2025 report, the median age of first-time buyers was a record high 40, all buyers 59, and first-time buyers were 21 percent of the market, the lowest share since NAR began tracking in 1981. Source: NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2025 (survey period July 2024 to June 2025).
Common questions
Is it a good time to buy a house?
There is no universal answer, and we do not give buy or sell recommendations. The tracker shows where national affordability, mortgage rates, inventory, and price trends stand, and the calculator lets you test your own numbers, so you can judge your own situation.
How is housing affordability measured here?
We estimate the monthly mortgage payment on a home and compare it to income. As a guide, a total housing payment under 28% of gross income is Affordable, 28 to 33% is Stretched, 33 to 40% is Expensive, and over 40% is Very expensive. The historical chart uses principal and interest only, because taxes and insurance are not consistently available across decades.
Why do not mortgage rates move with the Fed?
The Fed sets a short-term target rate. A 30-year mortgage is priced off longer-term bonds, especially the 10-year Treasury yield, plus a spread lenders add, so mortgage rates can move before or differently from the Fed.
What is the average age of a first-time home buyer?
In the NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2025, the median age of first-time buyers was 40 and the median age of all buyers was 59. First-time buyers were 21 percent of the market.
Are these new-home or existing-home prices?
The headline median price is for new homes, from the Census Bureau, because it is freely and consistently available. Existing-home prices run close but come from a separate source. We label new-home and existing-home figures separately and never blend them.
Does the tool store my income or home price?
No. Every calculation runs in your browser. Nothing you enter is stored or sent. Analytics record only coarse ranges, never your actual numbers.
Related learning
Strengthen the ideas behind this tool.
Housing & Real Estate Hub
The education layer behind this tracker.
HousingHow Mortgages Work
Principal, interest, amortization, and rates.
HousingRenting vs Buying
A neutral framework for the decision itself.
Financial LiteracyBudgeting Basics
Plan for a mortgage and monthly costs.
Financial LiteracyGood Debt vs Bad Debt
Where a mortgage fits in your finances.
Financial LiteracyHow to Calculate Net Worth
See how a home fits your balance sheet.
ConceptInflation
Why prices and home values drift upward.
ConceptTreasury Yield
The benchmark that drives mortgage rates.
Data sources
Educational tool: The Housing Affordability Tracker uses public data from FRED (Census, Freddie Mac, BLS, U.S. Treasury, NAR, and Realtor.com) and the Federal Reserve. The median price reflects new homes (Census); existing-home prices come from a separate source and are not blended in. Median household income is annual and lags about a year. Historical affordability uses principal and interest only. Figures are for educational comparison, not financial advice, a recommendation, or a prediction. Refreshed 2026-06-06.