Economic Outlook Tracker
Measures how expansionary current conditions appear.
Track whether the economy currently looks more expansionary or recessionary using key labor, inflation, credit, rates, and market indicators. For the flip side, see the Recession Probability Tracker.
Live data is temporarily unavailable. The educational sections below still apply, and the score will return once data loads.
A dashboard, not a prediction
It is not a forecast
This score describes what conditions look like today. It does not predict if or when a recession will happen, and no single tool can.
Use it for risk awareness
Treat it like a dashboard. A lower score is a reason to check your plan and risk tolerance, not a reason to panic or sell.
One weak indicator is normal
Indicators move around month to month. A single warning reading on its own rarely means much.
Clusters matter most
Risk is more meaningful when several indicators weaken together. Watch for groups of warnings, not isolated ones.
Make this part of your weekly check-in
We break down what these indicators mean in plain English twice a week: Wednesday market analysis and Friday investing ideas. Get the newsletter and watch the outlook with us.
Educational content only: The Economic Outlook Tracker is an equal-weight, transparent summary of public economic indicators from FRED. It is an estimated read on current conditions, not a forecast, official recession probability, or financial advice. Data may be delayed or revised. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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