Inflation Tracker
Track market-based inflation expectations and what they may mean for stocks, bonds, crypto, and the Fed.
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What this number tells you
What it means
The 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate shows what the market expects average inflation to be over the next five years. It comes from the gap between regular Treasury bonds and inflation-protected ones. A reading of 2.5% means investors are pricing in about 2.5% average inflation per year over that period.
Why investors watch it
Inflation expectations shape almost everything in markets. They influence how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, where bond yields trade, how stocks and crypto are valued, and how investors think about gold. A clear read on expectations helps explain why markets move the way they do.
Higher inflation expectations
When expectations rise, investors often expect higher interest rates ahead. That tends to pressure bonds, weigh on high-growth stocks, and push up borrowing costs across the economy. Riskier assets can struggle as money becomes more expensive.
Lower inflation expectations
When expectations fall, it can ease pressure on the Federal Reserve and pull yields lower. That often supports risk appetite and can help long-duration assets like growth stocks and bonds, since their future cash flows look more attractive.
How today compares
Comparison data is temporarily unavailable.
Values are the closest available reading on or before each date. Change to latest is shown in percentage points.
What investors should watch next
These are the releases and signals that tend to move inflation expectations. Select any one to see how it connects to inflation and the rest of the market.
A dashboard view of whether conditions currently look expansionary or recessionary.
A transparent read on how elevated recession risk looks across leading and coincident signals.
The headline consumer inflation reading. Big surprises can move rate expectations quickly.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, watched closely for policy clues.
Energy costs feed directly into inflation, so sharp moves often show up in expectations.
The benchmark long-term rate. It reflects growth and inflation expectations together.
Rate decisions and the tone of Fed comments can reset the inflation outlook.
Faster pay growth can keep inflation sticky. It is a key input the Fed monitors.
Tighter lending can cool the economy and inflation. Looser credit can do the opposite.
Where inflation shows up
Make this part of your weekly check-in
Instead of checking a static chart, use this page to track the latest inflation trend and how it connects to markets. Bookmark it and revisit each week.
Covered in our guides and analysis
Money Masters coverage that connects to this. Everything here is our own work, free to read.
Related on Money Masters
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Educational content only: The 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate is a market-based measure of inflation expectations published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). It is provided here for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Data may be delayed and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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