Recession Probability Tracker
Measures recession risk signals.
Track recession-risk signals using labor data, credit spreads, the yield curve, inflation expectations, and market trends. For the expansion-side read, see the Economic Outlook Tracker.
Live data is temporarily unavailable. The educational sections below still apply, and the reading will return once data loads.
Stay rational, not fearful
Recessions are dated in hindsight
Official recession dates are declared months after they begin. No tool, including this one, can call them in real time.
It tracks signals, not certainty
This measures how many risk indicators are flashing, not whether a recession will happen. Treat it as a weather report, not a verdict.
One weak indicator is normal
Indicators move around month to month. A single reading turning cautious rarely means much on its own.
Clusters matter most
Risk is meaningful when several indicators weaken together. Watch for groups of warnings, not isolated ones.
Use it to stay rational
A higher reading is a reason to review your plan and risk tolerance, not a reason to panic or sell.
Make this part of your weekly check-in
We translate these recession-risk signals into plain English twice a week: Wednesday market analysis and Friday investing ideas. Get the newsletter and follow the risk picture with us.
Educational content only: This tracker is an equal-weight, transparent summary of public economic indicators from FRED. It is a directional read on recession risk, not a forecast, official recession probability, or financial advice. Data may be delayed or revised. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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