Treasury Yield Tracker
See where interest rates sit, and why they matter.
Treasury yields are the closest thing the economy has to a base interest rate, so they shape everything from mortgage rates to how investors value stocks. This page tracks the key maturities and the yield curve, and explains in plain English what they tend to signal. For how this feeds risk models, see the Recession Probability Tracker.
The snapshot
Live Treasury yields are temporarily unavailable. The educational sections below still apply, and the snapshot will fill back in once the data feed responds. We do not show placeholder figures here, so nothing on this card is a made-up number.
What Treasury yields mean
A Treasury yield is the annual return the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a set period. When you hear that the 10-year yield is a certain percent, that is roughly what an investor earns for lending to the government for ten years.
Because U.S. Treasuries are considered very low risk, their yields act as a baseline for interest rates across the whole economy. They influence what you pay on a mortgage, what businesses pay to borrow, and how investors value almost everything else. That is why a handful of Treasury numbers can tell you a lot about the financial weather.
Key yields to watch
Each maturity tells you something a little different. Short maturities track current policy, while longer ones reflect expectations for growth and inflation years out.
3-Month Treasury
The 3-month bill moves closely with the Federal Reserve's policy rate, so it is a quick read on what the Fed is doing right now. When the Fed raises or cuts, the short end tends to follow quickly.
2-Year Treasury
The 2-year note reflects where investors think the Fed is heading over the next couple of years. It often starts moving before the Fed itself acts, which is why it gets watched so closely.
10-Year Treasury
The 10-year yield is the reference rate for much of the economy. It influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and how investors decide what stocks and other assets are worth.
30-Year Treasury
The 30-year bond reflects long-run expectations for growth and inflation. It matters for long-dated borrowing and for anyone thinking in decades rather than months.
The yield curve explained
The yield curve is simply a snapshot of Treasury yields across different maturities, from a few months out to thirty years. Normally longer-term yields are higher than short-term ones, because lending for longer usually demands a little more return. That produces an upward sloping curve.
Sometimes that flips. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields, the curve is inverted. The most watched version is the gap between the 2-year and the 10-year, often called the 2s10s. An inversion there has come before a number of past recessions, which is a big reason it gets so much attention.
It is worth keeping in mind that the timing has varied widely. An inversion has sometimes been followed by a long delay, and it has not been right every time. It is a useful signal to understand, not a precise clock, and that is exactly why it is one input among many rather than the whole story.
Why investors watch the 10-year Treasury
If you only follow one interest rate, the 10-year Treasury yield is usually the one. It sits in the middle of the curve and acts as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy.
Mortgage rates tend to track it. Companies price much of their long-term borrowing against it. And because it represents a steady return over a long stretch with very low risk, it is a key input when investors decide how much to pay for stocks and other assets. When the 10-year moves a lot, markets usually pay attention.
What higher or lower yields can signal
There is no single right level for yields. What tends to matter more is the direction and the reason behind a move.
When yields rise
Rising yields often reflect stronger growth expectations, firmer inflation, or a Fed that is keeping rates high. They also make borrowing more expensive, from mortgages to business loans, and can make bonds more competitive with stocks.
When yields fall
Falling yields often reflect slower growth expectations, cooling inflation, or investors moving into Treasuries for safety. Lower yields make borrowing cheaper, which can support spending, though they can also reflect more caution about the road ahead.
Yields move for many reasons at once, so a single day's change rarely means much on its own. The trend over weeks and months is usually the more useful read.
How this connects to Money Masters trackers
Treasury yields do not sit in isolation. The yield curve is one of the signals behind our recession and outlook tools, and rates show up across the rest of the site too. Here is where to go next.
Put rates in context
Yields are one piece of the puzzle. These free tools help you see how they fit with the rest of the economy, all built from public data and written in plain English.
Educational content only: Treasury yields shown here come from the official U.S. Department of the Treasury daily feed and may be delayed or revised. This page is for education and information, not financial advice, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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